Oil Price Forecasts Surge as Strait of Hormuz Shipping Disruptions Persist

Energy market analysts have significantly increased their global crude oil price forecasts for 2026, driven by dwindling expectations of a swift restoration of commercial shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. According to a comprehensive Reuters survey of 30 economists and market analysts, the average price forecast for Brent crude has been revised upward to $89.05 per barrel, up from the previous month's estimate of $85.08. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude estimates were bumped from $80.20 to $83.90 per barrel, with individual analyst projections ranging as high as $97.60 for Brent. Major financial institutions, including HSBC and DBS Bank, emphasize that shipping traffic through the waterway remains structurally constrained. Current transit volumes for liquid hydrocarbons linger well below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 20 million barrels per day, with full recovery unexpected over the next three to six months. Despite constrained transit through the strait, total oil exports from Persian Gulf producers reached 23.3 million barrels per day recently—aligning with historical averages—partially aided by off-grid maritime routes and dark fleet transits. Meanwhile, volatile prices above $100 per barrel and rising freight rates have tempered Fourth Quarter import projections for China down to 9.2–9.3 million barrels per day. Market observers further expect OPEC+ members to maintain strict production targets without immediate supply increases, prolonging tight market fundamentals until at least 2027.